Reading the Tea Leaves of the November, 2010 Election

Op Ed by David Arredondo, 22 June, 2010

Gallup released a poll this week that measures political party, specifically Democratic-Republican, voting enthusiasm (“Republicans' Midterm Voting Enthusiasm Tops Prior Years”). Gallup shows that 59% of Republicans are very enthusiastic about voting in November versus 40% of Democratic voters.

In Lorain County, Republican voter turnout for the May 2010 primary was 79% v. Democratic turnout of 37%. In Ohio, Republican voters outnumbered the more numerous registered Democrats.
 

David Arredondo

I am not celebrating the November election results yet, just trying to read the tea leaves.

Four years ago Gallup recorded a 50%-40% Democratic-Republican gap and we know what happened: the Democrats took the House and Senate; in 2008 they followed up with the presidency and larger congressional majorities. In 2006, the Democrats took all Ohio state offices except auditor, and in 2008 they took control of the Ohio House of Representatives.  To say the least, 2006 was a Republican disaster.

I've seen this movie from both sides now and I’m just waiting for this year's ending, with its possible reversal of fortunes.

Last week, the Public Opinion Strategies poll revealed that Congresswoman Betty Sutton is trailing her November opponent, Tom Ganley, 44-41%. She was re-elected in 2008 by 65%-35% making this a 24% drop in less than 2 years. Granted, I expect her to close the gap, but what exactly might she do to actually hit 51% before November 2? Given this "enthusiasm gap" I have to wonder about any incumbent who is not polling 50% now.
 
In his Sunday column, Editor Andy Young cites the 1994 contest between then-Congressman Sherrod Brown and Greg White as a possible harbinger of this year’s race between Congresswoman Sutton and car dealer Tom Ganley. Yes, there may be some parallels between the 1994 election and this year’s Sutton-Ganley race. Despite the GOP tidal wave of 1994, Brown squeaked out a win. Might Sutton do the same?

Two factors will make the difference in a Ganley win:  money, and issues.

Tom Ganley can bankroll his entire campaign, Betty Sutton cannot.  She will be hard-pressed to raise funds from her left-wing lobbyist friends, who will also be besieged by many other equally endangered Democrats.

And, as Mr. Young noted, Mr. Ganley will be on television endlessly while she will not. Ganley is a widely known name throughout Northeast Ohio, which Republican candidates Craig Foltin (2006) and Dave Potter (2008) were not. But neither is Ms. Sutton, for that matter.
 
The second factor is issues. In 2006, Republicans had to defend the Bush "malaise" that afflicted our candidates from top to bottom. Obama, on the other hand, is still fairly popular so no need to run against him -- but instead, what he has wrought: net job losses, higher unemployment, the upward spiraling costs of government at all levels, and a highly unpopular health care bill that was passed without a single Republican vote nor support from the majority of voters. 

The average citizen is not anti-government or anti-tax. The average citizen is anti-wasteful and inefficient government. Currently, that is what we are seeing at the school district, city, state, and federal levels.  

Voters are tired of seeing at all levels of publically funded entities high salaries, overtime for safety force supervisors, vacation and sick time payouts, six-figure public pensions, and double-dipping. This is the prevailing climate of the electorate and Democrats happen to be in control in Washington, from the presidency through both the House and Senate.
 
Though there was nothing that could be done to prevent Hurricane Katrina, President Bush was blamed for the inefficient government response. Similarly, while BP did cause the Gulf oil spill, the Obama government failed to sufficiently regulate BP and thus far has failed to expedite cleanup measures and assist those affected by the spill. Once again, we see Big Government inefficiency—and that does not sit well with the electorate.
 
Clearly, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 13th Congressional District. But as the Gallup poll shows, the Democratic electorate may not turn out in sufficient numbers while Republicans appear ready to march. Add to these the numbers of Independent voters who currently favor Republicans over Democrats by 2-1 margins, and we have the makings of a December retirement party for Betty Sutton.

Note: David Arredondo is the Vice Chairman of the Lorain County Republican Party

We'd like to know what you think about this article. Please leave your comments below so we can share your thoughts with other visitors. 

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Friday, October 14, 2011

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

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Monday, October 10, 2011

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Monday, October 10, 2011

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Monday, October 10, 2011

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Monday, October 10, 2011

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Sunday, September 25, 2011

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Sunday, September 25, 2011

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